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Macroeconomics

Good Economic News vs. Bad Economic News: The Dumbbell Effect - April 2010

 

State of the Union and Risk Landscape - January 2010

 

State of the Union & Risk Landscape

Further Warnings & the China Bubble - August 2009

 

The Beryl Consulting Group LLCAugust 21, 2009

China Syndrome - May 2009

The Beryl Consulting Group - May 13, 2009   Over the last 3 and 6 month periods, Chinese indexes have led a global rally. China has outdone emerging markets broadly and has left US indexes well behind. FXI has outperformed EEM and the S&P 500. This does not fit standard macroeconomic patterns, theory or intuition.

The Public Private Investment (PPIP) - March 2009

The Beryl Consulting Group - March 24, 2009  Public private partnership is an attempt to restart private markets for distressed loans. The issues remain how these assets are priced, how much risk investors will take and how many more defaults and write downs are coming? Click on attachment for analysis.

 

Mortgage Market Metastasis

The Beryl Consulting Group - February 11, 2009   Real wages, the dollar earnings of Americans adjusted for what these dollars can purchase, have been stagnant or underperformed overall economic growth for most of the last 30 years. The average weekly earnings for all employed Americans have not risen significantly since 1973. Yet, we live materially much better lives. How is this possible? Click on attachment for analysis.
 

Is Fiscal Policy the Magic Bullet?

The Beryl Consulting Group – January 6, 2009  Healing means Americans must earn and save more than they spend for several years. We must buy less and make more for sale to the world. The flip side of this coin is that others will have to save less, spend more and allow greater import penetration. That is what rebalancing would look like. Click on attachment for analysis.
 

Still Waiting for a Real Bottom

The Beryl Consulting Group – December 24, 2008  The lessons of the post tech bubble markets are starting to emerge. There is no systemic evidence that these lessons are being factored.We should have learned that integrated, globalized economies are defined by profound interdependence and that debt is excusable only insofar as it is more productive than costly. Click on attachment for analysis.
 

Watershed Moment

The Beryl Consulting Group – September 11, 2008  The seizure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will shape and change international credit markets and US real estate financing for years. It will take months to assess and learn how much the worlds of borrowing, lending and home ownership will be altered. Click on attachment for analysis.

Foreign Spigot Off for US Consumers

The Beryl Consulting Group – August 28, 2008  What we are witnessing is the breakdown of the link between middle-class America and the global financial markets it has over-tapped across the last several decades. Fannie and Freddie were the support infrastructure connecting houses to capital market access. They have been caught with weak financials, swollen balance sheets and escalating default, just like the home owners they assist.