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Bust, Bail, Repeat

The Beryl Consulting Group – July 28, 2008   We are a year into the financial pain and virtually no systemic problem has been solved. Markets have entered into a new unsustainable cycle. The new dance is a two-step. Home prices slide, elinquencies rise, defaults rise. This puts additional pressure on housing going forward. Financial firms announce greater write-offs. Retailers slump and contagion goes global. Selling grips the markets, the good and the bad are sold off indiscriminately.

Consumption, Cacophony and Clarity

The Beryl Consulting Group – June 18, 2008  Consumption and government spending were the "positive" elements in the most recent GDP numbers. Consumption, dubiously adjusted for modest inflation, increased by 1% on a quarter over quarter basis. Private investment spending was negative and net exports grew as a negative number despite Dollar weakness. Things are bad and continue to worsen. Click on attachment for analysis.


Global Markets Play Leap Frog

The Beryl Consulting Group – November 5, 2008  The wealth effect looks at how falling wealth reduces people's consumption. Firms and households have seen trillions in losses on their homes, stocks, bonds, loans. They are poorer, fell poorer and are less positive about their futures. Thus, they reduce spending. Click on attachment for analysis.

America Downgraded

The Beryl Consulting Group – January 16, 2008   On January 10, 2008 Moody's signaled its belief that the long-term credit rating of US Government debt might have to be downgraded -- below AAA. The firm was clearly neither downgrading nor, about to downgrade in the foreseeable future. It was a warning about pension costs, healthcare costs and the track our government is on. Click on attachment for analysis.

Mortgage Market Metastasis

The Beryl Consulting Group – December 19, 2007  Our saga of consumer debt difficulty continues to metastasize and generate tumors in far flung economic organs. Today (December 19, 2007) it became clear that cities and towns will be facing less available credit and paying more for the credit they get. This is important because it means that Americans will be faced with a slowing economy and cash-strapped local service providers. Click on attachment for analysis.

Sino Silence in the Sub Prime Swamp

The Beryl Consulting Group – December 14, 2007  This article is motivated by two questions. The first regards the eerie silence from China about the subprime mortgage and US asset-backed securities meltdown. Second, how much risk lurks in the China portfolio of US debt? How much risk is acceptable? Click on attachment for analysis.

Fedophiles and Fedophobes

The Beryl Consulting Group – September 14, 2007  As the credit crunch worsens, volatility and re-pricing create swings of fortune. In times of uncertainty, markets look to monetary authorities. The US Federal Reserve receives massive attention. Click on attachment for analysis.


Markets Marching in Lock Step

The Beryl Consulting Group – July 4, 2007  Experience has starkly taught that unusual global asset prices correlation that we have been experiencing since 2003 can cause real trouble when rising tides turn into receding waters. The LTCM saga, among several, serves as a reminder that unusual correlation can carve a swath of destruction through the best of models and assumptions. Click on attachment for analysis.


Hedge Fund America

The Beryl Consulting Group – February 27, 2007  There are some strange facts about the asset and trade positions of the US economy in the globalizing economy. The United States runs massive and growing trade deficits, is borrowing at a clip that would arouse the suspicions of a casino pit boss, and has been selling its assets to anyone who will buy. Click on attachment for analysis.


Automn Chills the Economic Air

The Beryl Consulting Group – October 3, 2006  Naturally, the passage of summer into autumn entails a chilling of the air. Less natural and more pronounced this year is the cooling of the US economy. Profits and GDP (gross domestic product) growth, as well as housing numbers and durable-goods reports, point to falling temperatures. Click on attachment for analysis.